Maine School Closure Risk Assessment

Maine's schools are closing at an alarming rate due to three converging factors:

Aging Infrastructure: 68% of buildings exceed 40-year life expectancy
Declining Enrollment: 73% of districts lost students 2019-2024, totaling 10,000 fewer students statewide
Shrinking Child Populations: Children under 5 dropped 5% from 2013-2023

High-Risk Schools

CRITICAL (6.5-10)

HIGH (4.5-6.4)

Average Risk Score

High-Risk Schools Ranked by Score (Click to Expand)

Names, locations, scores, and risk factors for all CRITICAL and HIGH risk schools.

Showing of schools

Analysis Charts (Click to Expand)

Risk Score Distribution

Enrollment Distribution by Risk Category

Most Common Risk Factors

High-Risk Schools by County

Acquisition Strategy (Click to Expand)

Tier 1: CRITICAL Risk (6.5-10)

schools - Closure risk in 1-3 years

Actions: Begin due diligence immediately, focus on schools with declining enrollment and child population, assess land value, establish district relationships

Profile: Schools showing both enrollment decline (>10%) and child population decline (>5%) in their census tract

Tier 2: HIGH Risk (4.5-6.4)

schools - Closure risk in 3-5 years

Actions: Build relationships, monitor for acceleration, identify regional clusters

Timing: More flexible window, position for future opportunity

Screening Criteria

Must-Have:

Risk score 6.5+ or 4.5+
Enrollment declining >10%
Child population declining >5%
Geographic access

High-Value:

Both enrollment and population declining
Rural location
Economic distress indicators
Consolidation opportunities